Death to El Niño, good hope for La Niña
The reigning El Niño is expected to dissipate completely within a month, while La Niña conditions are likely to be established by September.
This is according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, which has updated its latest outlook to a La Niña watch.
La Niña is often associated with 'wetter than usual' conditions in Southern Africa, whereas El Niño conditions often lead to unpredictable and weaker rainfall in Namibia.
The center states that neutral ENSO conditions are expected to set in within the coming month, signaling the end of this past season's El Niño. ENSO stands for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern.
There is a 49% chance of La Niña conditions developing between June and August and an even higher chance (69%) of La Niña setting in between July and September. According to weather models, La Niña will maintain its influence over weather conditions throughout the Southern Hemisphere's summer.
The center adds that La Niña conditions usually follow strong El Niño events, further increasing confidence in their forecast.
The overall coupling between oceanic and atmospheric systems indicated a sustained weakening of El Niño in April and the likelihood of ENSO conditions reaching neutral levels. This includes sea surface temperatures (SST) in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean being cooler than normal, while low-level winds blew eastward over the western Pacific Ocean.
The center's next outlook will be released on June 13.
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